Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
