Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
